Analysis of uptake, effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccinations in pregnancy using the QResearch database: research protocol and statistical analysis plan (preprint)

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has affected millions of people globally with major health, social and economic consequences, prompting development of vaccines for use in the general population. However, vaccination uptake is lower in some groups, including in pregnant women, because of concerns regarding vaccine safety. There is evidence of increased risk of adverse pregnancy and neonatal outcomes associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, but fear of vaccine-associated adverse events on the baby both in short and longer term is one of the main drivers of low uptake for this group. Other vaccines commonly used in pregnancy include influenza and pertussis. These both have reportedly higher uptake compared with COVID-19 vaccination, which may be because they are perceived to be safer. In this study, we will undertake an independent evaluation of the uptake, effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccinations in pregnant women using the QResearch primary care database in England. Objectives A. To determine COVID-19 vaccine uptake in pregnant women compared to uptake of influenza and pertussis vaccinations. B. To estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in pregnant women by evaluating the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes following vaccination. C. To assess the safety of COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy by evaluating the risks of adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes and adverse events of special interest for vaccine safety after COVID-19 vaccination compared with influenza and pertussis vaccinations. Methods This population-based study uses the QResearch database of primary health care records, linked to individual-level data on hospital admissions, mortality, COVID-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 testing data and congenital anomalies. We will include women aged 16 to 49 years with at least one pregnancy during the study period of 30th December 2020 to the latest date available. Babies born during the study period will be identified and linked to the mothers record, where possible. We will describe vaccine uptake in pregnant women by trimester and population subgroups defined by demographics and other characteristics. Cox proportional hazards multivariable regression will be used to identify factors associated with vaccine uptake. The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in pregnant women will be assessed using time varying Royston-Palmar regression analyses to determine unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios for the occurrence of severe COVID-19 outcomes after each vaccine dose compared with unvaccinated individuals. For the safety analysis, we will we use logistic regression analyses to determine unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios for the occurrence of maternal (e.g. miscarriage, ectopic pregnancy and gestational diabetes) and perinatal outcomes (e.g. stillbirth, small for gestational age and congenital anomalies) by vaccination status compared to unvaccinated individuals. For the adverse events of special interest for vaccine safety (e.g. venous thromboembolism, myocarditis and Guillain Barre syndrome), we will use time varying Royston-Palmar regression analyses to determine unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios for the occurrence of each outcome by vaccination status to unvaccinated individuals. Ethics and dissemination QResearch is a Research Ethics Approved Research Database with ongoing approval from the East Midlands Multi-Centre Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 18/EM/0400). This study was approved by the QResearch Scientific Committee on 9th June 2022. This research protocol has been developed with support from a patient and public involvement panel, who will continue to provide input throughout the duration of the study. Research findings will be submitted to pre-print servers such as MedRxIv, academic publication and disseminated more broadly through media releases and community groups and conference presentations.

Influenza, Shingles and Pneumococcal Vaccine Uptake, Offer and Refusal in Adult Populations at High-Risk for COVID-19: A UK Population-Based Cohort Study (preprint)

Background: As COVID-19 vaccination programs are being rolled out globally, we studied the ethnic, deprivation, household size and comorbidity ‘patterning’ of existing vaccination programs in populations at high-risk for COVID-19, to inform risk-stratified vaccination strategies and mitigate health inequalities. Methods: A population-level cohort study of UK adults aged 65 years or older, using a large primary care database. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess uptake of influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccination across ethnic groups, deprivation quintile, household size, and comorbidities, computing odds ratios (OR) adjusted for age, sex, demographics, body mass index and smoking. Offers and refusals of each vaccination type were analysed in those not receiving them. Findings: The cohort comprised 2,054,463 patients from 1,318 general practices. 1,452,014 (70.7%) patients received influenza vaccine, 1,391,228 (67.7%) received pneumococcal vaccine, and 690,783 (53.4%) received shingles vaccine. Compared to Whites, influenza vaccination uptake was lower in Pakistani (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.82; 99% confidence interval: 0.74-0.90), Black Caribbean (OR 0.46; 0.43-0.48), Black African (OR 0.63; 0.58-0.68), Chinese (OR 0.70; 0.64-0.76) and ‘Other ethnic group’ (OR 0.65; 0.63-0.69). The Black Caribbean group had higher vaccination refusal than the White group for influenza vaccination (OR 1.17; 1.05-1.30). Vaccination uptake was lower among the more deprived and those living in household sizes above 3 or more persons, with some significant interactions between ethnicity and comorbidities. Uptake of all three vaccines was higher in those with asthma, COPD, type 2 diabetes, hypertension and learning disability, whilst lower in those with dementia. Interpretation: Whilst uptake and refusal of influenza, shingles and pneumococcal vaccination are patterned by ethnicity, deprivation, household size and comorbidities, vaccination offer is mostly patterned by comorbidities. This information can inform national policies to ensure equitable implementation of COVID-19 vaccination programs to avoid exacerbating health inequalities.Funding Statement: This project was funded by the Medical Research Council (Grant Ref: MR/V027778/1).Declaration of Interests: PST reports previous consultation with AstraZeneca and Duke-NUS outside the submitted work. KK is a Member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), Member of Independent SAGE, Director of the University of Leicester Centre for Black Minority Health and Trustee of the south Asian Health Foundation. JHC is a member of several SAGE committees and chair of the risk stratification subgroup of the NERVTAG. She is unpaid director of QResearch and founder and former medical director of ClinRisk Ltd (outside the submitted work). MP, AKC, HDM, DS, TAR, FZ, BRS, SJG, CC, CG have no interests to declare.